Today I went back to the book I wrote back in 2010 –
Antibiotics – The Perfect Storm. In that
book I had a table showing the number of large pharmaceutical companies (>$10B
in revenues) pursuing antibiotic R&D and those who were not. I then updated that table as it stands
today. It is shown below.
Guess what! The names
have shifted, but the numbers are the same.
Since I wrote the book, Pfizer and J&J dumped their antibiotics
research programs, but Roche and Sanofi restarted theirs. I put AstraZeneca and
Novartis in parentheses this time since AZ recently spun out their discovery
group and is now entirely a development organization while Novartis remains
schizophrenic (as far as I can tell).
Novartis has an active and dedicated antibacterial research group, but a
hesitant development and commercial group (unless something has dramatically
changed recently).
The players who have returned to the field since 2010, Roche
and Sanofi, have yet to produce anything truly promising. Also, I guess I should add a number of
companies to the list. Gilead had $29B
in revenue in 2014, but remains a highly specialized company focusing mainly on
antivirals. There may be other companies that I should have added as well –
some of you will know this better than me.
This week, at the Davos conference, a group of
pharmaceutical and diagnostic companies released
a declaration supporting incentives for antibiotic R&D. In going down
the list of signatories, the only large companies not pursuing antibiotic
R&D that signed were J&J and Pfizer. Abbot, Bayer, BMS, Lilly, (Gilead),
were nowhere to be seen. As I noted for
the New
York Times this week, the question is, even if the incentives were to
appear such that a return on investment for antibiotics was guaranteed, would
some of these companies get back in the game?
The absence of signatures may tell the story. Why? Once you have abandoned a field of research,
you lose all internal expertise in that field.
Getting back in is hard and takes years.
Just ask Roche and Sanofi. Some of these companies probably feel
comfortable where they are and have no desire to get back to antibiotic R&D
even if there could be a return on their investment.
The story with Pfizer may or may not be different. I noted
in November that they are pursuing a purchase of Allergan. Allergan has the US rights to the promising
AZ pipeline of antibiotics for resistant Gram negative infections and is
already marketing ceftazidime-avibactam (Aycaz). This means that Pfizer would
have an opportunity to get back in. Will
they take it? Is that what their
signature means? Will incentives help them decide? Who knows?
I leave the question as to whether we have made progress
since 2010 or not up to you.
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